Short summary concerning the forensic analyses which have been published so far concerning the horrible explosion in the parking yard of al-Ahli hospital in Gaza with approximately 100–300 deaths.
Most of the discussion concerns one flying object in question captured by different cameras flaring in the sky and then changing direction and flaring again just 3 seconds prior to a first small explosion close to the hospital and then the large blast and the fire at the hospital. While Al Jazeera English claims the object to have been a rocket shot down by the Iron Dome, the Wallstreet Journal explains that the change in direction can only be explained by a propulsion failure, not by an Iron Dome interception. Since this object changed its direction westwards this is compatible with the crater analysis by Wallstreet Journal, the doppler effect analysis on a recording from the site by Earshot and the analysis of damage of the building by Forensic Architecture. Associated Press analysis largely agrees with Wallstreet Journal but with less detail. However, unlike AJE, AP and WSJ the New York Times localises the trajectory object differently and claims that it has been a rocket launched from Israel and which might not have even entered Gaza and which was too far away (2 miles) to have been the cause for the explosion at the hospital.
I would be very grateful for any assessments why the NY Times differs so much concerning the trajectory of the object, from the analysis presented by AJE, AP, WSJ and the US administration.
A barrage of rockets fired during the preceding minute from the southwest from the hospital and which had initially been identified as the cause of the explosion by the IDF is most likely unrelated to the explosion at the hospital (because of crater, audio and building damage analysis, the direction does not match). Most of them reached Israeli airspace and were intercepted there (AJE).
Concerning the damage most analyses agree that it is not compatible with typically used Israeli bombs or missiles. The small crater followed by a huge fire make the failed rocket a very plausible explanation and even New York Times agrees with that (opening the possibility that there was yet another failed rocket not caught on camera?). Burning fuel (note that WSJ considers the rocket to have been of higher range than the typical short range rockets fired at neighbouring cities) and the explosion of a car in a crowded environment would have caused the fire with many casualties in the crowded environment (while the official Gaza health ministry/Hamas figure of 471 deaths is almost certainly very much exaggerated). However, there have been several Israel airstrikes in spatio-temporal proximity to the explosion at the hospital, but none of these known strikes happened at the precise time of the explosion.
Just on a side note: Concerning the hit at St. Prophyrios church in Gaza City, the IDF admitted that it was due to their airstrike that a hall belonging to the church/monastery next to the church building was hit, killing 20–25 Palestinians seeking shelter there (numbers according to the orthodox order running the place). Fortunately initial reports by the order estimating that 150–200 people were killed had to be corrected, all the rumours about the church being destroyed or 500 people being killed were completely false.
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